AUSCMI
Department of Computer Science & Software Engineering
Containing Delta variant outbreaks in Australia: a modelling analysis
New modelling shows non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccinating school children required to contain Delta variant outbreaks in Australia
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Latest Insights
The latest in COVID-19 modelling research across Australia, presented transparently for public benefit
Oct 7, 2021
Containing Delta variant outbreaks in Australia: a modelling analysis
New modelling shows non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccinating school children required to contain Delta variant outbreaks in Australia
Oct 6, 2021
NSW should be 'okay' opening up
New modelling suggests that NSW – as well Victoria and ACT – should have confidence that opening up will be ‘okay’ at 70 to 80 per cent double vaccinated
Sep 22, 2021
2022 will be better: COVID-19 Pandemic Tradeoffs modelling
For us to ‘live with the virus’ will take more effort that what many of us assume, but by effectively using the tools we have now and innovating, we can achieve a well-functioning society in 2022.
Sep 18, 2021
Modelling the Victorian Roadmap
Victoria's new Roadmap out of lockdown shows that the key to opening up and reducing risk in Victoria will be making sure workers across the state are vaccinated
Sep 7, 2021
Initial modelling projections for second epidemic wave in Sydney, NSW
Diagnoses and hospitalisations in Sydney will continue increasing for several weeks before reaching a peak and declining once sufficient vaccine-acquired immunity is achieved.
Sep 3, 2021
Modelling direct and herd protection effects of vaccination against the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in Australia
With existing intentions of the Australian population regarding vaccination, current vaccine efficacy and the infectiousness of the Delta variant, herd immunity through vaccination alone seems improbable
Sep 1, 2021
Cross-country effects and policy responses to COVID-19 in 2020: The Nordic countries
Unlike its Nordic neighbours, Sweden maintained an open border in the first half of 2020 within the EU and beyond and imposed no quarantine requirements for arrivals.
Aug 26, 2021
The number of daily cases when you release restrictions can make a massive difference: A tale of the Lucky and Unlucky States
Doherty-led modelling is being interpreted as saying that the number of daily cases in a state makes little difference to futures if releasing restrictions.
Aug 21, 2021
Can a vaccine-led approach end the NSW outbreak in 100 days, or at least substantially reduce morbidity and mortality?
Speeding up the vaccine rollout in Sydney and New South Wales helps with the Delta outbreak, but lockdowns may matter more in the short term
Jul 30, 2021
Association of simulated COVID-19 policy responses for social restrictions and lockdowns
What has the least health losses and is the most cost-effective of 4 policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic (aggressive elimination, moderate elimination, tight suppression, and loose suppression) in the state of Victoria, Australia?
Jul 23, 2021
A vaccine 'plus' strategy needed for the future
Even with high vaccination coverage, continually introducing cases through relaxed quarantine is likely to lead to outbreaks that require public health responses. However, greater vaccine coverage provides a variety of response and control options.
Jul 21, 2021
Impact of a mandatory mask policy in Victoria
Even with high vaccination coverage, continually introducing cases through relaxed quarantine is likely to lead to outbreaks that require public health responses. However, greater vaccine coverage provides a variety of response and control options.
Jul 21, 2021
Vaccines and variants: Modelling insights into emerging issues in COVID-19 epidemiology
COVID-19 modelling will continue to play a critical role in guiding pandemic responses, whether it is used to identify key characteristics of emerging variants or to project disease spread under various scenarios
Jul 20, 2021
How long till Sydney gets out of lockdown?
New COVID-19 modelling finds NSW’s hard decision to go into hard lockdown gives the State more certainty about how long they’ll be stuck in there
Jul 14, 2021
Nowcasting transmission and suppression of the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Australia
How effective are current non-pharmaceutical interventions against the Sydney COVID-19 outbreak?
Jul 12, 2021
NSW outbreak
The Delta outbreak in NSW is quickly spiralling out of control, will Victorian-style restrictions be sufficient to control its spread?
Jul 8, 2021
What is the right COVID-19 risk to live with?
As Australia looks toward opening its international borders, new virus modelling provides scenarios that can help us decide what’s the right risk to tolerate
Jul 7, 2021
A modelling analysis of the effectiveness of second wave COVID-19 response strategies in Australia
Early and robust application of social distancing measures are known to be an appropriate response to the COVID-19 pandemic, but it underpinning their effectiveness is proactive timing
Jun 28, 2021
Epidemiological modelling of the health and economic effects of COVID-19 control in Australia’s second wave
Better public health outcomes and lower economy costs occur when social distancing measures are more stringent, implemented earlier and implemented for a sufficiently long duration.
Jun 11, 2021
Opening up at different stages of the vaccine rollout
Thousands of deaths likely if COVID-19 ‘left to run’ in Victoria without high vaccine uptake and public health measures, new modelling shows
Jun 4, 2021
Health and economic costs of early and delayed suppression and the unmitigated spread of COVID-19: The case of Australia
Lockdowns mitigate the spread of COVID-19, but is this sufficient to justify the associated health and economic costs?
Apr 21, 2021
The Impact of Universal Mask Use on SARS-COV-2 in Victoria, Australia on the Epidemic Trajectory of COVID-19
Early mask use should be considered if community transmission is present, as this has a greater effect than later mask-wearing mandates.
Mar 12, 2021
How will mass-vaccination change COVID-19 lockdown requirements in Australia?
Addressing implications of Australia's a mass-vaccination approach to prevent future outbreaks of COVID-19
Feb 19, 2021
Effectiveness of facemasks for opening a university campus in Mississippi, United States-a modelling study.
Universal use of face masks and reducing the number of people on campus may allow safer universities reopening.
Feb 8, 2021
Change in outbreak epicentre and its impact on the importation risks of COVID-19 progression: A modelling study
Human population movement plays an important role in the spread of infectious diseases, and countries must adapt quickly and adjust their containment measures to reduce the spread of infection.
Dec 19, 2020
Modelling of COVID-19 vaccination strategies and herd immunity, in scenarios of limited and full vaccine supply in NSW, Australia
A judicious vaccination strategy will be required to suppress outbreaks in Australia until vaccine supply is unrestricted
Nov 18, 2020
Robust estimates of the true (population) infection rate for COVID-19: a backcasting approach
Quantifying true infection rates in developing countries is an urgent health priority for better public health decision-making in relation to COVID-19 surveillance
Nov 11, 2020
Modelling transmission and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia
There are various mitigation and suppression strategies aimed to control the spread of COVID-19, how do we quantify their relative benefits?
Oct 7, 2020
The potential impact of a recent measles epidemic on COVID-19 in Samoa
Samoa, which had large measles epidemics in 2019–2020 should focus on rapidly achieving high rates of measles vaccination and enhanced surveillance for COVID-19.
Jul 22, 2020
Delaying the COVID-19 epidemic in Australia: evaluating the effectiveness of international travel bans
The travel ban on individuals arriving from China successfully delayed the onset of widespread transmission in Australia by approximately four weeks
May 25, 2020
A modelling analysis of strategies for relaxing COVID-19 social distancing
The ability of countries to contain and control COVID-19 virus transmission via social distancing is critical in the absence of a vaccine.
May 22, 2020
The effectiveness of full and partial travel bans against COVID-19 spread in Australia for travellers from China during and after the epidemic peak in China.
Australia's travel restrictions during the first wave of COVID-19 were highly effective at containing the local epidemic.
Mar 23, 2020
The Effectiveness of Social Distancing in Mitigating COVID-19 Spread: a modelling analysis
The ability of countries to contain and control COVID-19 virus transmission via social distancing is critical in the absence of a vaccine.