Population Interventions Unit
A log-odds system for waning and boosting of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness
Waning of immunity following COVID-19 vaccination presents a challenge when attempting to model likely population impacts of COVID-19 policy options
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Latest Insights
The latest in COVID-19 modelling research across Australia, presented transparently for public benefit
May 26, 2022
A log-odds system for waning and boosting of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness
Waning of immunity following COVID-19 vaccination presents a challenge when attempting to model likely population impacts of COVID-19 policy options
May 19, 2022
Optimising cost-effectiveness of pandemic response under partial intervention measures
The approach utilises an agent-based model simulating pandemic responses in Australia, and accounts for a heterogeneous population with variable levels of compliance fluctuating over time and across individuals
Mar 1, 2022
SARS-CoV-2 Omicron disease burden in Australia following border reopening: a modelling analysis
New modelling shows reopening the Western Australian border prior to June 2022 is required to minimise peak daily and total health burdens
Feb 24, 2022
Simulating Transmission Scenarios of the Delta Variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Australia
How effective are current non-pharmaceutical interventions against the Sydney COVID-19 outbreak?
Feb 18, 2022
Mitigating the SARS-CoV-2 Delta disease burden in Australia by non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccinating children: a modelling analysis
New modelling shows non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccinating school children required to contain Delta variant outbreaks in Australia
Dec 14, 2021
Sustaining effective COVID-19 control in Malaysia through large-scale vaccination
Rapid roll-out of vaccination is particularly critical to controlling Malaysia’s epidemic, with continuing NPIs likely to be needed throughout much of the roll-out period.
Dec 7, 2021
Time for a clear national COVID-19 strategy
Pandemic responses across the world have been highly reactive. However, there remain only three strategic options to managing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): mitigation, suppression and elimination
Nov 1, 2021
Understanding how Victoria, Australia gained control of its second COVID-19 wave
The improvement in Victoria’s second wave of COVID-19 cases could be well captured in our transmission model through a combination of time-varying processes that included: testing rates, population mobility, use of face coverings, and physical distancing.
Oct 6, 2021
NSW should be 'okay' opening up
New modelling suggests that NSW – as well Victoria and ACT – should have confidence that opening up will be ‘okay’ at 70 to 80 per cent double vaccinated
Sep 29, 2021
Vaccination and testing of the border workforce for COVID-19 and risk of community outbreaks: A modelling study
The reduction in vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 transmission increases the risk. As such, carrying out a frequent routine testing of highly exposed vaccinated groups could mitigate the increased risk due to vaccination
Sep 22, 2021
2022 will be better: COVID-19 Pandemic Tradeoffs modelling
For us to ‘live with the virus’ will take more effort that what many of us assume, but by effectively using the tools we have now and innovating, we can achieve a well-functioning society in 2022.
Sep 20, 2021
Fighting COVID-19 with the team of 5 million: New Zealand government communication during lockdown
Direct, honest and empathetic communication as well as empowering the public to act, are recommended strategies for effective government crisis communication
Sep 18, 2021
Modelling the Victorian Roadmap
Victoria's new Roadmap out of lockdown shows that the key to opening up and reducing risk in Victoria will be making sure workers across the state are vaccinated
Sep 7, 2021
Initial modelling projections for second epidemic wave in Sydney, NSW
Diagnoses and hospitalisations in Sydney will continue increasing for several weeks before reaching a peak and declining once sufficient vaccine-acquired immunity is achieved.
Sep 4, 2021
Estimated inequities in COVID-19 infection fatality rates by ethnicity for Aotearoa New Zealand
Infection fatality rate does not account for potential differences in transmission and incidence by ethnicity, risk factors for accelerated transmission include crowded housing affecting a quarter of Maori and almost half of Pacific people.
Sep 3, 2021
Modelling direct and herd protection effects of vaccination against the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in Australia
With existing intentions of the Australian population regarding vaccination, current vaccine efficacy and the infectiousness of the Delta variant, herd immunity through vaccination alone seems improbable
Sep 1, 2021
Cross-country effects and policy responses to COVID-19 in 2020: The Nordic countries
Unlike its Nordic neighbours, Sweden maintained an open border in the first half of 2020 within the EU and beyond and imposed no quarantine requirements for arrivals.
Aug 26, 2021
The number of daily cases when you release restrictions can make a massive difference: A tale of the Lucky and Unlucky States
Doherty-led modelling is being interpreted as saying that the number of daily cases in a state makes little difference to futures if releasing restrictions.
Aug 21, 2021
Can a vaccine-led approach end the NSW outbreak in 100 days, or at least substantially reduce morbidity and mortality?
Speeding up the vaccine rollout in Sydney and New South Wales helps with the Delta outbreak, but lockdowns may matter more in the short term
Jul 30, 2021
Association of simulated COVID-19 policy responses for social restrictions and lockdowns
What has the least health losses and is the most cost-effective of 4 policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic (aggressive elimination, moderate elimination, tight suppression, and loose suppression) in the state of Victoria, Australia?
Jul 23, 2021
A vaccine 'plus' strategy needed for the future
Even with high vaccination coverage, continually introducing cases through relaxed quarantine is likely to lead to outbreaks that require public health responses. However, greater vaccine coverage provides a variety of response and control options.
Jul 21, 2021
Impact of a mandatory mask policy in Victoria
Even with high vaccination coverage, continually introducing cases through relaxed quarantine is likely to lead to outbreaks that require public health responses. However, greater vaccine coverage provides a variety of response and control options.
Jul 21, 2021
Vaccines and variants: Modelling insights into emerging issues in COVID-19 epidemiology
COVID-19 modelling will continue to play a critical role in guiding pandemic responses, whether it is used to identify key characteristics of emerging variants or to project disease spread under various scenarios
Jul 20, 2021
How long till Sydney gets out of lockdown?
New COVID-19 modelling finds NSW’s hard decision to go into hard lockdown gives the State more certainty about how long they’ll be stuck in there
Jul 13, 2021
Understanding COVID-19 dynamics and the effects of interventions in the Philippines: A mathematical modelling study
COVID-19 dynamics in the Philippines are driven by age, contact structure, mobility, and Minimum Health Standards (MHS) adherence. Continued compliance with low-cost MHS should help the Philippines control the epidemic until vaccines are widely distributed, but disease resurgence may be occurring due to a combination of low population immunity and detection rates and new variants of concern.
Jul 12, 2021
NSW outbreak
The Delta outbreak in NSW is quickly spiralling out of control, will Victorian-style restrictions be sufficient to control its spread?
Jul 9, 2021
Māori and Pacific people in New Zealand have a higher risk of hospitalisation for COVID-19
After controlling for factors such as age, underlying health conditions and socioeconimic deprivation, the Maori and Pacific people have risk of being hospitalized from COVID-19 infection.
Jul 8, 2021
What is the right COVID-19 risk to live with?
As Australia looks toward opening its international borders, new virus modelling provides scenarios that can help us decide what’s the right risk to tolerate
Jul 7, 2021
A modelling analysis of the effectiveness of second wave COVID-19 response strategies in Australia
Early and robust application of social distancing measures are known to be an appropriate response to the COVID-19 pandemic, but it underpinning their effectiveness is proactive timing
Jun 30, 2021
A COVID-19 vaccination model for Aotearoa New Zealand
The higher the vaccination coverage is, the more collective protection the population has against COVID-19 health outcomes.
Jun 28, 2021
Epidemiological modelling of the health and economic effects of COVID-19 control in Australia’s second wave
Better public health outcomes and lower economy costs occur when social distancing measures are more stringent, implemented earlier and implemented for a sufficiently long duration.
Jun 11, 2021
Opening up at different stages of the vaccine rollout
Thousands of deaths likely if COVID-19 ‘left to run’ in Victoria without high vaccine uptake and public health measures, new modelling shows
Jun 4, 2021
Health and economic costs of early and delayed suppression and the unmitigated spread of COVID-19: The case of Australia
Lockdowns mitigate the spread of COVID-19, but is this sufficient to justify the associated health and economic costs?
Jun 3, 2021
Successful contact tracing systems for COVID-19 rely on effective quarantine and isolation
Adequate provision of good support systems that allow individuals to effectively quarantine and isolate themselves boost efficient contact tracing success.
May 31, 2021
Ethics of selective restriction of liberty in a pandemic
In order to identify appropriate responses to a pandemic, governments should adopt a consequentialist approach with the aim of reducing the disease burden to an acceptable level of harm.
Apr 21, 2021
The Impact of Universal Mask Use on SARS-COV-2 in Victoria, Australia on the Epidemic Trajectory of COVID-19
Early mask use should be considered if community transmission is present, as this has a greater effect than later mask-wearing mandates.
Apr 21, 2021
Managing the risk of a COVID-19 outbreak from border arrivals
Investigating the risk of COVID-19 outbreak from within the quarantine facilities showed that shorter quarantine periods or reliance on testing only with no quarantine may increase risk of an infected case being released to the community. Frontline workers at this facilities risk exposure to the infected individuals as this may lead to a local community outbreak.
Mar 24, 2021
Model-free estimation of COVID-19 transmission dynamics from a complete outbreak
Control measures such as social distancing and border controls significantly contribute to mitigating COVID-19 spread especially targeting superspreading
Mar 12, 2021
How will mass-vaccination change COVID-19 lockdown requirements in Australia?
Addressing implications of Australia's a mass-vaccination approach to prevent future outbreaks of COVID-19
Feb 22, 2021
Mathematical modelling to inform New Zealand’s COVID-19 response
Ongoing investment in mathematical modelling expertise in general is needed to provide key model-based policies and help in strengthening New Zealand’s capacity to prepare and manage present and future pandemics
Feb 19, 2021
Effectiveness of facemasks for opening a university campus in Mississippi, United States-a modelling study.
Universal use of face masks and reducing the number of people on campus may allow safer universities reopening.
Feb 8, 2021
Change in outbreak epicentre and its impact on the importation risks of COVID-19 progression: A modelling study
Human population movement plays an important role in the spread of infectious diseases, and countries must adapt quickly and adjust their containment measures to reduce the spread of infection.
Dec 19, 2020
Modelling of COVID-19 vaccination strategies and herd immunity, in scenarios of limited and full vaccine supply in NSW, Australia
A judicious vaccination strategy will be required to suppress outbreaks in Australia until vaccine supply is unrestricted
Nov 18, 2020
Robust estimates of the true (population) infection rate for COVID-19: a backcasting approach
Quantifying true infection rates in developing countries is an urgent health priority for better public health decision-making in relation to COVID-19 surveillance
Nov 11, 2020
Modelling transmission and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia
There are various mitigation and suppression strategies aimed to control the spread of COVID-19, how do we quantify their relative benefits?
Oct 7, 2020
The potential impact of a recent measles epidemic on COVID-19 in Samoa
Samoa, which had large measles epidemics in 2019–2020 should focus on rapidly achieving high rates of measles vaccination and enhanced surveillance for COVID-19.
Sep 9, 2020
Modelling insights into the COVID-19 pandemic
Demographic, epidemiological, and socioeconomic factors will likely result in differential impacts of COVID-19 on low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) and other vulnerable groups compared with high resource settings.
Jul 22, 2020
Delaying the COVID-19 epidemic in Australia: evaluating the effectiveness of international travel bans
The travel ban on individuals arriving from China successfully delayed the onset of widespread transmission in Australia by approximately four weeks
Jun 17, 2020
Role of modelling in COVID-19 policy development
In general, models have played an important role in policy development to address the COVID-19 outbreak from its emergence in China to the current global pandemic.
May 25, 2020
A modelling analysis of strategies for relaxing COVID-19 social distancing
The ability of countries to contain and control COVID-19 virus transmission via social distancing is critical in the absence of a vaccine.
May 22, 2020
The effectiveness of full and partial travel bans against COVID-19 spread in Australia for travellers from China during and after the epidemic peak in China.
Australia's travel restrictions during the first wave of COVID-19 were highly effective at containing the local epidemic.
Mar 23, 2020
The Effectiveness of Social Distancing in Mitigating COVID-19 Spread: a modelling analysis
The ability of countries to contain and control COVID-19 virus transmission via social distancing is critical in the absence of a vaccine.