How effective are current non-pharmaceutical interventions against the Sydney COVID-19 outbreak?
Dr Sheryl L. Chang, Dr Oliver M. Cliff, Dr Cameron Zachreson, Prof Mikhail Prokopenko


We explored a feasible range of non-pharmaceutical interventions aimed to control a continuing outbreak of the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Sydney, Australia.


The level of social distancing currently attained in Sydney is inadequate for the outbreak control. A counter-factual analysis suggested that if 80% of agents comply with social distancing, then at least a month is needed for the new daily cases to reduce from their peak to below ten, while 70% compliance lengthens this period to 45 days.

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First published: Feb 24, 2022
Centre for Complex Systems & Sydney Institute for Infectious Diseases
The Centre for Complex Systems (CCS) at The University in Sydney studies collective and critical behaviours, with diverse applications ranging from computational epidemiology and systems biology to urban and social dynamics. The CCS has a strategic partnership with The University of Sydney Institute for Infectious Diseases.