AUSCMI
THE AUSTRALIAN COVID-19 MODELLING INITIATIVE
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CENTRE FOR COMPLEX SYSTEMS & SYDNEY INSTITUTE FOR INFECTIOUS DISEASES
Nowcasting transmission and suppression of the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Australia
How effective are current non-pharmaceutical interventions against the Sydney COVID-19 outbreak?
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Latest insights
DEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER SCIENCE & SOFTWARE ENGINEERING
Containing Delta variant outbreaks in Australia: a modelling analysis
New modelling shows non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccinating school children required to contain Delta variant outbreaks in Australia
POPULATION INTERVENTIONS UNIT
NSW should be 'okay' opening up
New modelling suggests that NSW – as well Victoria and ACT – should have confidence that opening up will be ‘okay’ at 70 to 80 per cent double vaccinated
POPULATION INTERVENTIONS UNIT
2022 will be better: COVID-19 Pandemic Tradeoffs modelling
For us to ‘live with the virus’ will take more effort that what many of us assume, but by effectively using the tools we have now and innovating, we can achieve a well-functioning society in 2022.
BURNET INSTITUTE
Modelling the Victorian Roadmap
Victoria's new Roadmap out of lockdown shows that the key to opening up and reducing risk in Victoria will be making sure workers across the state are vaccinated
BURNET INSTITUTE
Initial modelling projections for second epidemic wave in Sydney, NSW
Diagnoses and hospitalisations in Sydney will continue increasing for several weeks before reaching a peak and declining once sufficient vaccine-acquired immunity is achieved.
THE AUSTRALIAN INSTITUTE OF TROPICAL HEALTH AND MEDICINE (AITHM)
Modelling direct and herd protection effects of vaccination against the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in Australia
With existing intentions of the Australian population regarding vaccination, current vaccine efficacy and the infectiousness of the Delta variant, herd immunity through vaccination alone seems improbable
In the media
Reality check: Would the government's original vaccine timetable have put Australia in a different position?
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has claimed that a faster vaccine rollout, as projected by the government as early as last year, wouldn't have put Australia in a different position. Here's RMIT ABC Fact Check with a reality check.
Sep 8, 2021
Beware the air you share – OzSAGE advice on Safe Indoor Air (ventilation) for Australia
Most infections occur in shared indoor spaces. The most fundamental measure to eliminate the virus from indoor air is ventilation: every public building must have control measures to provide adequate ventilation.
Sep 6, 2021
High vaccination coverage is required before public health measures can be relaxed
Professor Quentin Grafton and Professor Tom Kompas present their model on possible eventual public health outcomes of Phase D, the Post Vaccination Phase (to live with COVID-19) of the National Plan to transition Australia’s National COVID-19 Response.
Sep 3, 2021
OzSAGE independent expert advice on opening safely in the COVID-19 pandemic
OzSAGE, a diverse, multi-disciplinary network of Australian experts, releases its preliminary advice paper for the safe opening of Australia to complement the National Plan.
Sep 2, 2021
Pandemic peak in sight - but we must brace for an infection surge
National modelling led by Centre for Complex Systems researchers shows that a pandemic peak is in sight, but we must brace for a surge of infections upon reopening when 80 percent of the adult population is vaccinated and restrictions are lifted.
Aug 26, 2021
Biosecurity Program, Kirby Institute
UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES
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BIOSECURITY PROGRAM, KIRBY INSTITUTE
The Impact of Universal Mask Use on SARS-COV-2 in Victoria, Australia on the Epidemic Trajectory of COVID-19
Early mask use should be considered if community transmission is present, as this has a greater effect than later mask-wearing mandates.
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BIOSECURITY PROGRAM, KIRBY INSTITUTE
Effectiveness of facemasks for opening a university campus in Mississippi, United States-a modelling study.
Universal use of face masks and reducing the number of people on campus may allow safer universities reopening.
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BIOSECURITY PROGRAM, KIRBY INSTITUTE
Modelling of COVID-19 vaccination strategies and herd immunity, in scenarios of limited and full vaccine supply in NSW, Australia
A judicious vaccination strategy will be required to suppress outbreaks in Australia until vaccine supply is unrestricted
Burnet Institute
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BURNET INSTITUTE
Modelling the Victorian Roadmap
Victoria's new Roadmap out of lockdown shows that the key to opening up and reducing risk in Victoria will be making sure workers across the state are vaccinated
Girl in a jacket
BURNET INSTITUTE
Initial modelling projections for second epidemic wave in Sydney, NSW
Diagnoses and hospitalisations in Sydney will continue increasing for several weeks before reaching a peak and declining once sufficient vaccine-acquired immunity is achieved.
Girl in a jacket
BURNET INSTITUTE
A vaccine 'plus' strategy needed for the future
Even with high vaccination coverage, continually introducing cases through relaxed quarantine is likely to lead to outbreaks that require public health responses. However, greater vaccine coverage provides a variety of response and control options.
COVID Economic Policy Modelling Group
AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY
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COVID ECONOMIC POLICY MODELLING GROUP
Cross-country effects and policy responses to COVID-19 in 2020: The Nordic countries
Unlike its Nordic neighbours, Sweden maintained an open border in the first half of 2020 within the EU and beyond and imposed no quarantine requirements for arrivals.
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COVID ECONOMIC POLICY MODELLING GROUP
Epidemiological modelling of the health and economic effects of COVID-19 control in Australia’s second wave
Better public health outcomes and lower economy costs occur when social distancing measures are more stringent, implemented earlier and implemented for a sufficiently long duration.
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COVID ECONOMIC POLICY MODELLING GROUP
Health and economic costs of early and delayed suppression and the unmitigated spread of COVID-19: The case of Australia
Lockdowns mitigate the spread of COVID-19, but is this sufficient to justify the associated health and economic costs?
Centre for Complex Systems & Sydney Institute for Infectious Diseases
UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY
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CENTRE FOR COMPLEX SYSTEMS & SYDNEY INSTITUTE FOR INFECTIOUS DISEASES
Nowcasting transmission and suppression of the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Australia
How effective are current non-pharmaceutical interventions against the Sydney COVID-19 outbreak?
Girl in a jacket
CENTRE FOR COMPLEX SYSTEMS & SYDNEY INSTITUTE FOR INFECTIOUS DISEASES
How will mass-vaccination change COVID-19 lockdown requirements in Australia?
Addressing implications of Australia's a mass-vaccination approach to prevent future outbreaks of COVID-19
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CENTRE FOR COMPLEX SYSTEMS & SYDNEY INSTITUTE FOR INFECTIOUS DISEASES
Modelling transmission and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia
There are various mitigation and suppression strategies aimed to control the spread of COVID-19, how do we quantify their relative benefits?
Department of Computer Science & Software Engineering
UNIVERSITY OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA
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DEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER SCIENCE & SOFTWARE ENGINEERING
Containing Delta variant outbreaks in Australia: a modelling analysis
New modelling shows non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccinating school children required to contain Delta variant outbreaks in Australia
Girl in a jacket
DEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER SCIENCE & SOFTWARE ENGINEERING
A modelling analysis of the effectiveness of second wave COVID-19 response strategies in Australia
Early and robust application of social distancing measures are known to be an appropriate response to the COVID-19 pandemic, but it underpinning their effectiveness is proactive timing
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DEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER SCIENCE & SOFTWARE ENGINEERING
A modelling analysis of strategies for relaxing COVID-19 social distancing
The ability of countries to contain and control COVID-19 virus transmission via social distancing is critical in the absence of a vaccine.
Population Interventions Unit
MSPGH, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE
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POPULATION INTERVENTIONS UNIT
NSW should be 'okay' opening up
New modelling suggests that NSW – as well Victoria and ACT – should have confidence that opening up will be ‘okay’ at 70 to 80 per cent double vaccinated
Girl in a jacket
POPULATION INTERVENTIONS UNIT
2022 will be better: COVID-19 Pandemic Tradeoffs modelling
For us to ‘live with the virus’ will take more effort that what many of us assume, but by effectively using the tools we have now and innovating, we can achieve a well-functioning society in 2022.
Girl in a jacket
POPULATION INTERVENTIONS UNIT
The number of daily cases when you release restrictions can make a massive difference: A tale of the Lucky and Unlucky States
Doherty-led modelling is being interpreted as saying that the number of daily cases in a state makes little difference to futures if releasing restrictions.
The Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine (AITHM)
JAMES COOK UNIVERSITY
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THE AUSTRALIAN INSTITUTE OF TROPICAL HEALTH AND MEDICINE (AITHM)
Modelling direct and herd protection effects of vaccination against the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in Australia
With existing intentions of the Australian population regarding vaccination, current vaccine efficacy and the infectiousness of the Delta variant, herd immunity through vaccination alone seems improbable
Girl in a jacket
THE AUSTRALIAN INSTITUTE OF TROPICAL HEALTH AND MEDICINE (AITHM)
Vaccines and variants: Modelling insights into emerging issues in COVID-19 epidemiology
COVID-19 modelling will continue to play a critical role in guiding pandemic responses, whether it is used to identify key characteristics of emerging variants or to project disease spread under various scenarios
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THE AUSTRALIAN INSTITUTE OF TROPICAL HEALTH AND MEDICINE (AITHM)
Change in outbreak epicentre and its impact on the importation risks of COVID-19 progression: A modelling study
Human population movement plays an important role in the spread of infectious diseases, and countries must adapt quickly and adjust their containment measures to reduce the spread of infection.