New modelling shows reopening the Western Australian border prior to June 2022 is required to minimise peak daily and total health burdens
George J Milne, Julian Carrivick


The emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant has resulted in rapidly increasing case numbers, although incidence of severe disease is decreased. This study aimed to predict the health burden upon the Western Australian hospital system once the hard border is removed and an outbreak occurs, and the change in this health burden over time due to waning vaccination immunity.



In order to minimise peak daily and total health burden, removal of the Western Australian hard border should be preferred earlier rather than later, prior to June 2022. In doing so, peak ICU demand is predicated to not exceed surge capacity of Western Australian hospitals. On 18th February 2022 the Government of Western Australia announced the borders would be reopened on March 3rd 2022 amid an ongoing local outbreak. While not specifically modelling this scenario, these results are generally applicable to the ongoing outbreak and can be used to estimate progression through the wave.

Open full paper HERE

First published: Mar 1, 2022
Department of Computer Science & Software Engineering
The University of Western Australia's Department of Computer Science and Software Engineering works in all things tech. From mobile data and cloud computing, to artificial intelligence and advanced software development, a degree in this field enables you to tackle technological challenges and devise innovative solutions to transform the way we live