To understand why the Melbourne second wave of SARS-CoV-2 transmission grew so rapidly; why the initial increase in social distancing response was ineffective; what responses would have been more effective; and thus the lessons learned.
- After calibrating the model to match daily diagnosed case data prior to Melbourne’s lockdown, modelling earlier activation of lockdown measures reduced total case numbers by more than 50%
- Earlier activation of lockdown measures would have also reduced peak daily cases and the duration of the second wave
- The timing of social distancing activation is shown to be critical to their effectiveness
- An exponential rise in cases, doubling every 7–10 days, can be used to trigger early lockdown measures