In general, models have played an important role in policy development to address the COVID-19 outbreak from its emergence in China to the current global pandemic.
Objective:
Model projections based on the virus’s infectiousness demonstrated its pandemic potential, which guided the global response to and prepared countries for increases in hospitalisations and deaths. Tracking the impact of distancing and movement policies and behaviour changes has been critical in evaluating these decisions.
Findings:
- Modelling COVID-19 influenced policy at all stages of the outbreak.
- Greater synthesis of epidemiological models and economic models is needed to assist policy makers.
- Models must be adapted to context, both in terms of disease behaviour and different interventions in different countries.
First published: Jun 17, 2020
Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine
The Monash University's [Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine](https://www.monash.edu/medicine/sphpm/epidemiology) in the [School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine](https://www.monash.edu/medicine/sphpm) has initially focused on TB epidemiology and control, but recently shifted its focus to include a strong interest in the COVID-19 pandemic. The focus comprises the use of methodological approaches in the areas of deterministic and stochastic Modelling, Agent-based Simulations, Applied Mathematics, Bayesian inference, Statistics, Epidemiology, Health Economics, Computer Science and Data Visualisation.
