Thousands of deaths likely if COVID-19 ‘left to run’ in Victoria without high vaccine uptake and public health measures, new modelling shows
Dr Romesh Abeysuriya, Professor Margaret Hallard, Dr Nick Scott


We develop an Excel-based tool to analyze model outputs for multiple parameter scenario combinations. The scenarios assess the impact of allowing cases into the community and dropping public health responses at different stages of the vaccine rollout. The scenarios allow for user-defined options for the infectiousness of the virus strain, the efficacy of the vaccine (against infection, symptoms, hospitalization, ICU and death), the maximum achievable coverage, and the vaccine rollout speed.



These results suggest that with more infectious variant appearing, and with vaccine efficacy potentially waning over time, opening up borders before we reach peak vaccine coverage would likely lead to an uncontrolled epidemic wave. The result also suggest that an ongoing public health response to COVID-19 will be required, even with high vaccine coverage.

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First published: Jun 11, 2021
Burnet Institute
The Burnet Institute is an Australian medical research institute that combines medical research in the laboratory and the field, with public health action to address major health issues affecting disadvantaged communities in Australia, and internationally.