The Australian COVID-19 Modelling Initiative

CENTRE FOR COMPLEX SYSTEMS & SYDNEY INSTITUTE FOR INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Measuring unequal distribution of pandemic severity across census years, variants of concern and interventions

The efficiency of the various and intricate intervention strategies used in recent years to contain the COVID-19 pandemic has varied. However, a systematic analysis and modelling of the combined effects of different viral lineages and complex intervention policies remains a challenge

CENTRE FOR COMPLEX SYSTEMS & SYDNEY INSTITUTE FOR INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Persistence of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Australia: The impact of fluctuating social distancing

The nonlinear dynamics observed in the daily incidence and disease burden were determined not only by introduction of sub-lineages of Omicron, but also by the fluctuating adoption of social distancing measures

INFECTIOUS DISEASE MODELLING LA TROBE

Which lockdowns are the best lockdowns? Optimal interventions and the trolley problem in heterogeneous populations

Interventions to mitigate the spread of infectious diseases, while succeeding in their goal, have economic and social costs associated with them. These limit the duration and intensity of the interventions.

POPULATION INTERVENTIONS UNIT

Epidemiologic and economic modelling of optimal COVID-19 policy: public health and social measures, masks and vaccines in Victoria, Australia

Identifying optimal COVID-19 policies is challenging. Therefore, COVID-19-related policy decisions must be made in the context of substantial uncertainty, a significant challenge for policy makers. In this complex environment it is increasingly important that the benefits and drawbacks of interventions are rigorously and systematically compared – including from a cost effectiveness perspective

DEPARTMENT OF EPIDEMIOLOGY AND PREVENTIVE MEDICINE

COVID-19 collaborative modelling for policy response in the Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam

This work describes an approach to support evidence-based public health decisions and policy, which may help inform other responses to similar outbreak events.

CENTRE FOR COMPLEX SYSTEMS & SYDNEY INSTITUTE FOR INFECTIOUS DISEASES

A general framework for optimising cost-effectiveness of pandemic response under partial intervention measures

The approach utilises an agent-based model simulating pandemic responses in Australia, and accounts for a heterogeneous population with variable levels of compliance fluctuating over time and across individuals

In the media

Australian COVID-19 Modelling Initiative (AUSCMI) submission to the Australian COVID-19 Response Inquiry

AUSCMI is a broad collective of expert researchers, epidemiologists, and modellers focused on modelling infectious diseases dynamics that is not formally constituted. We met throughout the pandemic to support coordination of Australian COVID-19 modelling for policy and disseminated our modelling research through various modalities, including a series of educational seminars to improve community understanding of infectious disease modelling. Our submission focuses on the role, impact and potential of modelling in policy, strategy and research. We provide related recommendations for improving Australia's preparedness for future pandemics. We note that several very important modelling-related issues fall out of scope of the review terms of reference, including sub-national and international coordination and long Covid. Details of the Submission can be found in the link below:

Feb 9, 2024

The Biarri Applied Mathematics Conference: Modelling tipping points and amplification effects of the COVID-19 pandemic response - Prof. Mikhail Prokopenko

Date: 29 November, 2022. Time: 12 -12:45pm (AEDT). This conference is hosted by The University of Sydney. Click here to view details and register. Registration is free!

Nov 20, 2022

AusCMI Webinar Series!!!

Date: 30 August, 2022. Click here to view details and link for the webinar series.

Aug 30, 2022

ALife 2022 Tutorial: Simulating pandemics with agent-based models - Prof. Mikhail Prokopenko

We consider pros and cons of agent-based models for studying pandemics, tracing a spatiotemporal spread of infection across a nation. We also introduce our open-source software, AMTraC-19 (Agent-based Model of Transmission and Control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia). The slides can be downloaded here: http://www.prokopenko.net/SimPanABM.html

Aug 2, 2022

The University of Sydney offers Fellowships for Ukrainian researchers and PhD students

This visiting PhD scholarship is announced as part of the University of Sydney’s Scholars at Risk program, and aims to fund 2-3 PhD scholars from the Ukraine to visit the University to allow them to continue their studies.

Mar 28, 2022

Biosecurity Program, Kirby Institute

UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES

BIOSECURITY PROGRAM, KIRBY INSTITUTE

The Impact of Universal Mask Use on SARS-COV-2 in Victoria, Australia on the Epidemic Trajectory of COVID-19

Early mask use should be considered if community transmission is present, as this has a greater effect than later mask-wearing mandates.

BIOSECURITY PROGRAM, KIRBY INSTITUTE

Effectiveness of facemasks for opening a university campus in Mississippi, United States-a modelling study.

Universal use of face masks and reducing the number of people on campus may allow safer universities reopening.

BIOSECURITY PROGRAM, KIRBY INSTITUTE

Modelling of COVID-19 vaccination strategies and herd immunity, in scenarios of limited and full vaccine supply in NSW, Australia

A judicious vaccination strategy will be required to suppress outbreaks in Australia until vaccine supply is unrestricted

Burnet Institute

BURNET INSTITUTE

Modelling the Victorian Roadmap

Victoria's new Roadmap out of lockdown shows that the key to opening up and reducing risk in Victoria will be making sure workers across the state are vaccinated

BURNET INSTITUTE

Initial modelling projections for second epidemic wave in Sydney, NSW

Diagnoses and hospitalisations in Sydney will continue increasing for several weeks before reaching a peak and declining once sufficient vaccine-acquired immunity is achieved.

BURNET INSTITUTE

A vaccine 'plus' strategy needed for the future

Even with high vaccination coverage, continually introducing cases through relaxed quarantine is likely to lead to outbreaks that require public health responses. However, greater vaccine coverage provides a variety of response and control options.

COVID-19 Modelling Aotearoa

TE PŪNAHA MATATINI

COVID-19 MODELLING AOTEAROA

Vaccination and testing of the border workforce for COVID-19 and risk of community outbreaks: A modelling study

The reduction in vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 transmission increases the risk. As such, carrying out a frequent routine testing of highly exposed vaccinated groups could mitigate the increased risk due to vaccination

COVID-19 MODELLING AOTEAROA

Fighting COVID-19 with the team of 5 million: New Zealand government communication during lockdown

Direct, honest and empathetic communication as well as empowering the public to act, are recommended strategies for effective government crisis communication

COVID-19 MODELLING AOTEAROA

Estimated inequities in COVID-19 infection fatality rates by ethnicity for Aotearoa New Zealand

Infection fatality rate does not account for potential differences in transmission and incidence by ethnicity, risk factors for accelerated transmission include crowded housing affecting a quarter of Maori and almost half of Pacific people.

COVID Economic Policy Modelling Group

AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY

COVID ECONOMIC POLICY MODELLING GROUP

Cross-country effects and policy responses to COVID-19 in 2020: The Nordic countries

Unlike its Nordic neighbours, Sweden maintained an open border in the first half of 2020 within the EU and beyond and imposed no quarantine requirements for arrivals.

COVID ECONOMIC POLICY MODELLING GROUP

Epidemiological modelling of the health and economic effects of COVID-19 control in Australia’s second wave

Better public health outcomes and lower economy costs occur when social distancing measures are more stringent, implemented earlier and implemented for a sufficiently long duration.

COVID ECONOMIC POLICY MODELLING GROUP

Health and economic costs of early and delayed suppression and the unmitigated spread of COVID-19: The case of Australia

Lockdowns mitigate the spread of COVID-19, but is this sufficient to justify the associated health and economic costs?

Centre for Complex Systems & Sydney Institute for Infectious Diseases

UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY

CENTRE FOR COMPLEX SYSTEMS & SYDNEY INSTITUTE FOR INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Simulating Transmission Scenarios of the Delta Variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Australia

How effective are current non-pharmaceutical interventions against the Sydney COVID-19 outbreak?

CENTRE FOR COMPLEX SYSTEMS & SYDNEY INSTITUTE FOR INFECTIOUS DISEASES

How will mass-vaccination change COVID-19 lockdown requirements in Australia?

Addressing implications of Australia's a mass-vaccination approach to prevent future outbreaks of COVID-19

CENTRE FOR COMPLEX SYSTEMS & SYDNEY INSTITUTE FOR INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Modelling transmission and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia

There are various mitigation and suppression strategies aimed to control the spread of COVID-19, how do we quantify their relative benefits?

Department of Computer Science & Software Engineering

UNIVERSITY OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA

DEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER SCIENCE & SOFTWARE ENGINEERING

SARS-CoV-2 Omicron disease burden in Australia following border reopening: a modelling analysis

New modelling shows reopening the Western Australian border prior to June 2022 is required to minimise peak daily and total health burdens

DEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER SCIENCE & SOFTWARE ENGINEERING

Mitigating the SARS-CoV-2 Delta disease burden in Australia by non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccinating children: a modelling analysis

New modelling shows non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccinating school children required to contain Delta variant outbreaks in Australia

DEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER SCIENCE & SOFTWARE ENGINEERING

A modelling analysis of the effectiveness of second wave COVID-19 response strategies in Australia

Early and robust application of social distancing measures are known to be an appropriate response to the COVID-19 pandemic, but it underpinning their effectiveness is proactive timing

Population Interventions Unit

MSPGH, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE

POPULATION INTERVENTIONS UNIT

Epidemiologic and economic modelling of optimal COVID-19 policy: public health and social measures, masks and vaccines in Victoria, Australia

Identifying optimal COVID-19 policies is challenging. Therefore, COVID-19-related policy decisions must be made in the context of substantial uncertainty, a significant challenge for policy makers. In this complex environment it is increasingly important that the benefits and drawbacks of interventions are rigorously and systematically compared – including from a cost effectiveness perspective

POPULATION INTERVENTIONS UNIT

A framework for considering the utility of models when facing tough decisions in public health: a guideline for policy-makers

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought the combined disciplines of public health, infectious disease and policy modelling squarely into the spotlight

POPULATION INTERVENTIONS UNIT

A log-odds system for waning and boosting of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness

Waning of immunity following COVID-19 vaccination presents a challenge when attempting to model likely population impacts of COVID-19 policy options

Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine

MONASH UNIVERSITY

DEPARTMENT OF EPIDEMIOLOGY AND PREVENTIVE MEDICINE

COVID-19 collaborative modelling for policy response in the Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam

This work describes an approach to support evidence-based public health decisions and policy, which may help inform other responses to similar outbreak events.

DEPARTMENT OF EPIDEMIOLOGY AND PREVENTIVE MEDICINE

Sustaining effective COVID-19 control in Malaysia through large-scale vaccination

Rapid roll-out of vaccination is particularly critical to controlling Malaysia’s epidemic, with continuing NPIs likely to be needed throughout much of the roll-out period.

DEPARTMENT OF EPIDEMIOLOGY AND PREVENTIVE MEDICINE

Time for a clear national COVID-19 strategy

Pandemic responses across the world have been highly reactive. However, there remain only three strategic options to managing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): mitigation, suppression and elimination

Infectious Disease Modelling La Trobe

LA TROBE UNIVERSITY

The Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine (AITHM)

JAMES COOK UNIVERSITY

THE AUSTRALIAN INSTITUTE OF TROPICAL HEALTH AND MEDICINE (AITHM)

Modelling direct and herd protection effects of vaccination against the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in Australia

With existing intentions of the Australian population regarding vaccination, current vaccine efficacy and the infectiousness of the Delta variant, herd immunity through vaccination alone seems improbable

THE AUSTRALIAN INSTITUTE OF TROPICAL HEALTH AND MEDICINE (AITHM)

Vaccines and variants: Modelling insights into emerging issues in COVID-19 epidemiology

COVID-19 modelling will continue to play a critical role in guiding pandemic responses, whether it is used to identify key characteristics of emerging variants or to project disease spread under various scenarios

THE AUSTRALIAN INSTITUTE OF TROPICAL HEALTH AND MEDICINE (AITHM)

Economic Consequences of the COVID-19 Outbreak: the Need for Epidemic Preparedness

It has become clear that most governments in the world underestimated the risks of rapid COVID-19 spread and were mostly reactive in their crisis response. As disease outbreaks are not likely to disappear in the near future, proactive international actions are required to not only save lives but also protect economic prosperity.