Early and robust application of social distancing measures are known to be an appropriate response to the COVID-19 pandemic, but it underpinning their effectiveness is proactive timing
Objective:
To understand why the Melbourne second wave of SARS-CoV-2 transmission grew so rapidly; why the initial increase in social distancing response was ineffective; what responses would have been more effective; and thus the lessons learned.
Findings:
- After calibrating the model to match daily diagnosed case data prior to Melbourne’s lockdown, modelling earlier activation of lockdown measures reduced total case numbers by more than 50%
- Earlier activation of lockdown measures would have also reduced peak daily cases and the duration of the second wave
- The timing of social distancing activation is shown to be critical to their effectiveness
- An exponential rise in cases, doubling every 7–10 days, can be used to trigger early lockdown measures
First published: Jul 7, 2021
Department of Computer Science & Software Engineering
The University of Western Australia's Department of Computer Science and Software Engineering works in all things tech. From mobile data and cloud computing, to artificial intelligence and advanced software development, a degree in this field enables you to tackle technological challenges and devise innovative solutions to transform the way we live
