In this seminar the author will present his model on possible eventual public health outcomes (cases, hospitalisations and fatalities) of Phase D, the Post Vaccination Phase (to live with COVID-19: management consistent with influenza or other infectious diseases) of the National Plan to transition Australia’s National COVID-19 Response. He compares outcomes under alternative adult vaccination rates and with (and without) vaccinating children, having higher vaccination rate for older Australians, and using vaccination boosters. The author finds a large difference in hospitalisations between 70%, 80% and 90% vaccination rates and alternative vaccination strategies.

Quentin Grafton is an Australian Laureate Fellow and Professor of Economics at the Crawford School of Public Policy at the Australian National University. Since February 2020 he has, including with Tom Kompas and other co-authors, modelled and evaluated the public policy outcomes associated with different public health measures.