Objective:

The New South Wales ‘Roadmap to Recovery’ proposes an initial easing of restrictions for those who are fully vaccinated at 70% double-dose vaccine coverage of 16+ year-olds. We use an agent-based model to estimate the likelihood that restrictions can be eased safely and successfully, and the extent to which a successful transition depends on the compliance of unvaccinated individuals with differentially strict restrictions.

Findings:

• In the six weeks following restriction easing, assuming perfect compliance (i.e. fully vaccinated individuals take up more freedoms and unvaccinated individuals stay in lockdown) sees only 6% of simulations exceed a 7-day-average of 2,000 cases per day—which we take as the threshold required for re-imposition of Stage 3-like restrictions for everyone.
• Assuming perfect non-compliance (i.e. unvaccinated individuals take up the same liberties as fully vaccinated individuals) increases the proportion of simulations exceeding a 7-day average of 2,000 cases per day to 9%.
• The ideal timing of easing restrictions occurs after the 7-day average falls below 500, which sees the proportion of simulations breaching 2,000 cases per day diminish to 0% and 2% for scenarios of perfect compliance and perfect non-compliance respectively.