The Delta outbreak in NSW is quickly spiralling out of control, will Victorian-style restrictions be sufficient to control its spread?
Objective:
To estimate whether the ‘Stage 3’ and ‘Stage 4’ restriction levels used in the Victorian second wave would be sufficient to control the Delta outbreak in NSW when it was at 30 cases/day
Findings:
- NSW’s updated restrictions (introduced 9 July 2021) are approximately equivalent to Victoria’s Stage 3 + masks restrictions.
- Stage 3 + masks restrictions were found to prevent daily case numbers from increasing further, but are unlikely to be sufficient to eliminate community transmission in an acceptable amount of time.
- Victoria’s Stage 4 restrictions are likely to contain a Delta variant outbreak Contrasting: These findings were in agreement with other modelling groups at the time of release. The epidemic and restriction levels in NSW has since changed from the scenarios modelled.
First published: Jul 12, 2021
Burnet Institute
The Burnet Institute is an Australian medical research institute that combines medical research in the laboratory and the field, with public health action to address major health issues affecting disadvantaged communities in Australia, and internationally.
