Even with high vaccination coverage, continually introducing cases through relaxed quarantine is likely to lead to outbreaks that require public health responses. However, greater vaccine coverage provides a variety of response and control options.
Objective:
The purpose was to attempt to understand what control strategies are proportionate, in a world with high vaccine coverage, no herd immunity, and an ongoing “leakage” of cases into the community from relaxed quarantine
Findings:
- Even with high vaccine coverage thousands of deaths could occur if public health responses are not initiated to help control outbreaks, and up to 45% of deaths could occur among the vaccinated population.
- With high vaccine coverage, light restrictions including masks, optional working from home and density limits are likely to be sufficient to control outbreaks, whereas heavier restrictions such as additional restrictions on home visitors would gain control faster.
- If infections are continually introduced into the community, such as with eased international quarantine, then restrictions will either need to be maintained or periodically re-imposed
- Using hospital usage as a trigger threshold for restrictions may lead to less overall time under restrictions while still achieving adequate health outcomes
Contrasting: Findings about not reaching herd immunity and the need for an ongoing public health response are in agreement with other models. The broad consensus highlights the need for further national conversations about what types of “light” restrictions or interventions might be acceptable long term for the community, business and other sectors.
First published: Jul 23, 2021
Burnet Institute
The Burnet Institute is an Australian medical research institute that combines medical research in the laboratory and the field, with public health action to address major health issues affecting disadvantaged communities in Australia, and internationally.
